Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel, positioning it for peak strength consistent with the 84.5% market-implied probability of Very Strong Typhoon status. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system reaching or sustaining winds in the very strong range (typically 85–104 knots sustained) around August 23 before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental changes limit further growth, aligning with the lower 13.5% odds for Violent Typhoon. Recent satellite observations and model consensus confirm this trajectory over the past several days, with minimal support for weaker outcomes given the storm's observed organization and forward motion.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 14%
Typhoon 1.6%
Tropical Storm <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
86%
Violent Typhoon
14%
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 14%
Typhoon 1.6%
Tropical Storm <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 Wol.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 Wol.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,436 Wol.
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
$1,496 Wol.
86%
Violent Typhoon
$3,195 Wol.
14%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel, positioning it for peak strength consistent with the 84.5% market-implied probability of Very Strong Typhoon status. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system reaching or sustaining winds in the very strong range (typically 85–104 knots sustained) around August 23 before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental changes limit further growth, aligning with the lower 13.5% odds for Violent Typhoon. Recent satellite observations and model consensus confirm this trajectory over the past several days, with minimal support for weaker outcomes given the storm's observed organization and forward motion.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Wolumen
$7,396Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel, positioning it for peak strength consistent with the 84.5% market-implied probability of Very Strong Typhoon status. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system reaching or sustaining winds in the very strong range (typically 85–104 knots sustained) around August 23 before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental changes limit further growth, aligning with the lower 13.5% odds for Violent Typhoon. Recent satellite observations and model consensus confirm this trajectory over the past several days, with minimal support for weaker outcomes given the storm's observed organization and forward motion.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Wolumen
$7,396Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel, positioning it for peak strength consistent with the 84.5% market-implied probability of Very Strong Typhoon status. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system reaching or sustaining winds in the very strong range (typically 85–104 knots sustained) around August 23 before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental changes limit further growth, aligning with the lower 13.5% odds for Violent Typhoon. Recent satellite observations and model consensus confirm this trajectory over the past several days, with minimal support for weaker outcomes given the storm's observed organization and forward motion.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania