Traders assign just a 6.3% chance to a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such megathrust events occur globally only once every several decades on average, with estimates of one to three per century based on subduction zone recurrence intervals. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, the most recent in 2011, and 2026 seismic catalogs show no events exceeding magnitude 7.8 amid routine monitoring of major fault systems. No anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns have emerged in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Aleutians to elevate near-term odds. While an unexpected full-margin rupture remains theoretically possible, the short remaining window and absence of precursors keep market-implied odds heavily weighted toward no event.