Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor activity near Los Angeles in 2026, with no events above magnitude 5.0 in the immediate urban area and isolated moderate quakes farther afield. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly a 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year span, translating to a low annualized background rate well below 4%. With just over four months remaining until 2027, this compressed timeframe drives the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. An unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid fault rupture could still produce a qualifying event before year-end, though such triggering remains statistically rare and difficult to anticipate.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6% szansa
$16,533 Wol.
$16,533 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% szansa
$16,533 Wol.
$16,533 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor activity near Los Angeles in 2026, with no events above magnitude 5.0 in the immediate urban area and isolated moderate quakes farther afield. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly a 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year span, translating to a low annualized background rate well below 4%. With just over four months remaining until 2027, this compressed timeframe drives the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. An unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid fault rupture could still produce a qualifying event before year-end, though such triggering remains statistically rare and difficult to anticipate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,533Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor activity near Los Angeles in 2026, with no events above magnitude 5.0 in the immediate urban area and isolated moderate quakes farther afield. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly a 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year span, translating to a low annualized background rate well below 4%. With just over four months remaining until 2027, this compressed timeframe drives the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. An unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid fault rupture could still produce a qualifying event before year-end, though such triggering remains statistically rare and difficult to anticipate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$16,533Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor activity near Los Angeles in 2026, with no events above magnitude 5.0 in the immediate urban area and isolated moderate quakes farther afield. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly a 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year span, translating to a low annualized background rate well below 4%. With just over four months remaining until 2027, this compressed timeframe drives the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. An unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid fault rupture could still produce a qualifying event before year-end, though such triggering remains statistically rare and difficult to anticipate.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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