Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 reflects the federal government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which cut new temporary-resident arrivals to 385,000 while holding permanent-resident targets at 380,000. These measures target a reduction of the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent by late 2027, producing sustained net outflows that have already offset permanent inflows. Statistics Canada recorded three consecutive quarterly declines through April 2026, including a 0.1 percent drop driven by roughly 118,000 fewer temporary residents, alongside lower permanent admissions and negative natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or slightly negative annual growth for 2026 overall, consistent with the policy shift from prior high-growth years. Traders assign an 89 percent probability to a lower Q4 2026 population versus Q4 2025 on the basis of these confirmed inflows, outflows, and official targets.