**Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82.5% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026**, reflecting trader consensus that he is the established successor following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes during the Iran war. The Assembly of Experts elected him unanimously in early March, installing the son as supreme leader amid regime continuity needs and security apparatus ties. Ongoing questions about his recovery from reported facial and leg injuries have not displaced him from decision-making roles, with Iranian officials consistently affirming his active control despite external speculation. Lower-priced alternatives, such as Alireza Arafi (interim council member) or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, remain distant due to limited institutional backing and the absence of viable succession challenges in the current environment. Volatility from the conflict and health ambiguity caps his odds below 100%, while the post-assassination transition anchors the market heavily in his favor.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.5%
国家元首不在 4.3%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.1%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.5%
$38,657,379 Vol.
$38,657,379 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
83%
国家元首不在
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.5%
国家元首不在 4.3%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.1%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.5%
$38,657,379 Vol.
$38,657,379 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,046,643 Vol.
83%
国家元首不在
$1,149,264 Vol.
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$672,451 Vol.
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,311,719 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,120,757 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$944,759 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,425,524 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$776,866 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,020,042 Vol.
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$918,117 Vol.
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$437,706 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$833,543 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$535,532 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,145,232 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$805,975 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$397,945 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,565 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$146,745 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$214,690 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$199,227 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$836,257 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$434,024 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,347,795 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$239,271 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$388,246 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,192,121 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$281,793 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$254,606 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$306,702 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$342,401 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.**Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82.5% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026**, reflecting trader consensus that he is the established successor following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes during the Iran war. The Assembly of Experts elected him unanimously in early March, installing the son as supreme leader amid regime continuity needs and security apparatus ties.
Ongoing questions about his recovery from reported facial and leg injuries have not displaced him from decision-making roles, with Iranian officials consistently affirming his active control despite external speculation. Lower-priced alternatives, such as Alireza Arafi (interim council member) or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, remain distant due to limited institutional backing and the absence of viable succession challenges in the current environment. Volatility from the conflict and health ambiguity caps his odds below 100%, while the post-assassination transition anchors the market heavily in his favor.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$38,657,379終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.**Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82.5% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026**, reflecting trader consensus that he is the established successor following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes during the Iran war. The Assembly of Experts elected him unanimously in early March, installing the son as supreme leader amid regime continuity needs and security apparatus ties.
Ongoing questions about his recovery from reported facial and leg injuries have not displaced him from decision-making roles, with Iranian officials consistently affirming his active control despite external speculation. Lower-priced alternatives, such as Alireza Arafi (interim council member) or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, remain distant due to limited institutional backing and the absence of viable succession challenges in the current environment. Volatility from the conflict and health ambiguity caps his odds below 100%, while the post-assassination transition anchors the market heavily in his favor.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$38,657,379終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82.5% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026**, reflecting trader consensus that he is the established successor following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes during the Iran war. The Assembly of Experts elected him unanimously in early March, installing the son as supreme leader amid regime continuity needs and security apparatus ties. Ongoing questions about his recovery from reported facial and leg injuries have not displaced him from decision-making roles, with Iranian officials consistently affirming his active control despite external speculation. Lower-priced alternatives, such as Alireza Arafi (interim council member) or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, remain distant due to limited institutional backing and the absence of viable succession challenges in the current environment. Volatility from the conflict and health ambiguity caps his odds below 100%, while the post-assassination transition anchors the market heavily in his favor.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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