Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, combined with the JCPOA's expiration and snapback sanctions in October 2025, have left enrichment facilities damaged but operational in key respects, with Iran maintaining that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable position. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a temporary memorandum of understanding, which expired in mid-August 2026 without a comprehensive accord, have focused on verification, stockpiles, and possible regional consortium models rather than a full halt. IAEA reporting highlights persistent access issues and Iran's refusal to abandon enrichment capabilities, while U.S. proposals emphasizing prohibitions on Iranian soil continue to face rejection. These entrenched diplomatic and security dynamics underpin trader consensus against any agreement by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
11% 確率
$1,632,617 Vol.
$1,632,617 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
11% 確率
$1,632,617 Vol.
$1,632,617 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, combined with the JCPOA's expiration and snapback sanctions in October 2025, have left enrichment facilities damaged but operational in key respects, with Iran maintaining that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable position. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a temporary memorandum of understanding, which expired in mid-August 2026 without a comprehensive accord, have focused on verification, stockpiles, and possible regional consortium models rather than a full halt. IAEA reporting highlights persistent access issues and Iran's refusal to abandon enrichment capabilities, while U.S. proposals emphasizing prohibitions on Iranian soil continue to face rejection. These entrenched diplomatic and security dynamics underpin trader consensus against any agreement by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
音量
$1,632,617終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, combined with the JCPOA's expiration and snapback sanctions in October 2025, have left enrichment facilities damaged but operational in key respects, with Iran maintaining that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable position. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a temporary memorandum of understanding, which expired in mid-August 2026 without a comprehensive accord, have focused on verification, stockpiles, and possible regional consortium models rather than a full halt. IAEA reporting highlights persistent access issues and Iran's refusal to abandon enrichment capabilities, while U.S. proposals emphasizing prohibitions on Iranian soil continue to face rejection. These entrenched diplomatic and security dynamics underpin trader consensus against any agreement by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,632,617終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, combined with the JCPOA's expiration and snapback sanctions in October 2025, have left enrichment facilities damaged but operational in key respects, with Iran maintaining that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable position. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a temporary memorandum of understanding, which expired in mid-August 2026 without a comprehensive accord, have focused on verification, stockpiles, and possible regional consortium models rather than a full halt. IAEA reporting highlights persistent access issues and Iran's refusal to abandon enrichment capabilities, while U.S. proposals emphasizing prohibitions on Iranian soil continue to face rejection. These entrenched diplomatic and security dynamics underpin trader consensus against any agreement by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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