Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025, followed by additional pressure into 2026, have damaged enrichment infrastructure and left highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or reduced in usability. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm limited inspector access and no structured weaponization activities, while U.S. intelligence assessments place Iran’s timeline for producing a nuclear device at nine to twelve months. Diplomatic talks have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers without agreement, and seismic events near sites have been attributed to natural causes rather than tests. These factors, alongside continued sanctions and verification gaps, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$206,751 Vol.
$206,751 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$206,751 Vol.
$206,751 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025, followed by additional pressure into 2026, have damaged enrichment infrastructure and left highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or reduced in usability. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm limited inspector access and no structured weaponization activities, while U.S. intelligence assessments place Iran’s timeline for producing a nuclear device at nine to twelve months. Diplomatic talks have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers without agreement, and seismic events near sites have been attributed to natural causes rather than tests. These factors, alongside continued sanctions and verification gaps, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$206,751終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025, followed by additional pressure into 2026, have damaged enrichment infrastructure and left highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or reduced in usability. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm limited inspector access and no structured weaponization activities, while U.S. intelligence assessments place Iran’s timeline for producing a nuclear device at nine to twelve months. Diplomatic talks have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers without agreement, and seismic events near sites have been attributed to natural causes rather than tests. These factors, alongside continued sanctions and verification gaps, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$206,751終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025, followed by additional pressure into 2026, have damaged enrichment infrastructure and left highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or reduced in usability. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm limited inspector access and no structured weaponization activities, while U.S. intelligence assessments place Iran’s timeline for producing a nuclear device at nine to twelve months. Diplomatic talks have focused on demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers without agreement, and seismic events near sites have been attributed to natural causes rather than tests. These factors, alongside continued sanctions and verification gaps, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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