**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes have substantially degraded Iran's key nuclear enrichment and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin through operations in 2025 and early 2026.** IAEA assessments through June 2026 report no major changes in Iran's program status, no evidence of a structured weaponization effort, and limited verification access following the attacks and leadership transition after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely inaccessible or contained, while ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions pressure have reinforced restraint. These verified setbacks and monitoring constraints underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, as rebuilding operational capacity for such an event faces significant technical and geopolitical barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$228,771 Vol.
$228,771 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$228,771 Vol.
$228,771 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes have substantially degraded Iran's key nuclear enrichment and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin through operations in 2025 and early 2026.** IAEA assessments through June 2026 report no major changes in Iran's program status, no evidence of a structured weaponization effort, and limited verification access following the attacks and leadership transition after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely inaccessible or contained, while ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions pressure have reinforced restraint. These verified setbacks and monitoring constraints underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, as rebuilding operational capacity for such an event faces significant technical and geopolitical barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$228,771終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes have substantially degraded Iran's key nuclear enrichment and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin through operations in 2025 and early 2026.** IAEA assessments through June 2026 report no major changes in Iran's program status, no evidence of a structured weaponization effort, and limited verification access following the attacks and leadership transition after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely inaccessible or contained, while ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions pressure have reinforced restraint. These verified setbacks and monitoring constraints underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, as rebuilding operational capacity for such an event faces significant technical and geopolitical barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$228,771終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes have substantially degraded Iran's key nuclear enrichment and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin through operations in 2025 and early 2026.** IAEA assessments through June 2026 report no major changes in Iran's program status, no evidence of a structured weaponization effort, and limited verification access following the attacks and leadership transition after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely inaccessible or contained, while ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions pressure have reinforced restraint. These verified setbacks and monitoring constraints underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, as rebuilding operational capacity for such an event faces significant technical and geopolitical barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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