The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and mass arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$24,790,381 Vol.
$24,790,381 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$24,790,381 Vol.
$24,790,381 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and mass arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
音量
$24,790,381終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and mass arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$24,790,381終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and mass arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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