Skip to main content
icon for 2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？
政治·イスラエル

2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？

icon for 2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？
政治·イスラエル

2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？

12月 31

12月 31

4 72.8%

5 19.8%

6 3.0%

7 <1%

Polymarket

$7,389,363 Vol.

4 72.8%

5 19.8%

6 3.0%

7 <1%

Polymarket

$7,389,363 Vol.

4

$1,231,301 Vol.

73%

5

$546,624 Vol.

20%

6

$650,571 Vol.

3%

7

$618,194 Vol.

1%

8

$530,438 Vol.

<1%

9

$236,188 Vol.

<1%

10

$400,441 Vol.

<1%

11

$134,140 Vol.

<1%

12

$222,700 Vol.

<1%

13

$351,390 Vol.

<1%

14

$190,808 Vol.

<1%

15以上

$188,060 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's 2026 military operations have centered on sustained airstrikes against Iranian targets following the late-February escalation that opened a multi-week joint US-Israeli campaign, alongside parallel actions against Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon and continued strikes on Hamas networks in Gaza. These three theaters account for the bulk of verified activity, with occasional reporting on Syrian or Yemeni sites supporting the market's heavy weighting toward four countries struck by year-end. Post-April ceasefire dynamics and limited border incidents have not produced confirmed expansion into additional states, keeping trader consensus at 73% for exactly four countries and 20% for five. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any resumption of broader regional proxy responses remain the primary variables that could alter the count before December 31.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$7,389,363
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's 2026 military operations have centered on sustained airstrikes against Iranian targets following the late-February escalation that opened a multi-week joint US-Israeli campaign, alongside parallel actions against Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon and continued strikes on Hamas networks in Gaza. These three theaters account for the bulk of verified activity, with occasional reporting on Syrian or Yemeni sites supporting the market's heavy weighting toward four countries struck by year-end. Post-April ceasefire dynamics and limited border incidents have not produced confirmed expansion into additional states, keeping trader consensus at 73% for exactly four countries and 20% for five. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any resumption of broader regional proxy responses remain the primary variables that could alter the count before December 31.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$7,389,363
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

関連

icon for 2026年にアメリカは8カ国を攻撃しますか？

2026年にアメリカは8カ国を攻撃しますか？

64%
はい
icon for インドは2026年12月31日までにパキスタンを攻撃しますか？

インドは2026年12月31日までにパキスタンを攻撃しますか？

13%
はい
icon for 12月31日までにアメリカがメキシコを攻撃するか？

12月31日までにアメリカがメキシコを攻撃するか？

13%
はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の16個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「4」で73%、次いで「5」が20%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、73¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に73%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？」は$7.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 13, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている16個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「4」で73%であり、市場がこの結果に73%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「5」で20%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年、イスラエルはいくつの国を攻撃するでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。