Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare formal steps reserved for severe bilateral breakdowns, supporting the 71% trader consensus against any occurrence by December 31. Recent developments, including a Canadian parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over alleged interference claims, have not prompted government action, with analysts viewing presentation in the fall House of Commons as unlikely to alter policy under current leadership. Broader context shows ongoing U.S. diplomatic staffing gaps and tensions with certain partners, yet no verified escalations or official declarations of persona non grata have materialized in the past month to shift probabilities meaningfully. Historical patterns indicate such moves typically follow sustained crises rather than public campaigns alone, leaving room for late-year surprises but favoring continuity through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
16% 確率
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare formal steps reserved for severe bilateral breakdowns, supporting the 71% trader consensus against any occurrence by December 31. Recent developments, including a Canadian parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over alleged interference claims, have not prompted government action, with analysts viewing presentation in the fall House of Commons as unlikely to alter policy under current leadership. Broader context shows ongoing U.S. diplomatic staffing gaps and tensions with certain partners, yet no verified escalations or official declarations of persona non grata have materialized in the past month to shift probabilities meaningfully. Historical patterns indicate such moves typically follow sustained crises rather than public campaigns alone, leaving room for late-year surprises but favoring continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$29,586終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare formal steps reserved for severe bilateral breakdowns, supporting the 71% trader consensus against any occurrence by December 31. Recent developments, including a Canadian parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over alleged interference claims, have not prompted government action, with analysts viewing presentation in the fall House of Commons as unlikely to alter policy under current leadership. Broader context shows ongoing U.S. diplomatic staffing gaps and tensions with certain partners, yet no verified escalations or official declarations of persona non grata have materialized in the past month to shift probabilities meaningfully. Historical patterns indicate such moves typically follow sustained crises rather than public campaigns alone, leaving room for late-year surprises but favoring continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$29,586終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare formal steps reserved for severe bilateral breakdowns, supporting the 71% trader consensus against any occurrence by December 31. Recent developments, including a Canadian parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over alleged interference claims, have not prompted government action, with analysts viewing presentation in the fall House of Commons as unlikely to alter policy under current leadership. Broader context shows ongoing U.S. diplomatic staffing gaps and tensions with certain partners, yet no verified escalations or official declarations of persona non grata have materialized in the past month to shift probabilities meaningfully. Historical patterns indicate such moves typically follow sustained crises rather than public campaigns alone, leaving room for late-year surprises but favoring continuity through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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