Heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed attacks on commercial vessels in early August 2026 have sharply curtailed tanker and cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil before the conflict. Iranian assertions of control, combined with a reimposed US naval blockade and strikes on vessels as recently as August 13, have kept daily transits at low single-digit levels amid elevated insurance costs and routing hesitancy. These conditions underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for 25-49 ships in the week of August 17, while the 34% chance of fewer than 25 reflects risks of further escalation. Higher buckets above 50 remain discounted given persistent instability and the absence of a durable ceasefire or safe-passage agreement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25〜49 44%
25未満 32%
50～74 26%
100隻以上 18%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
25未満
32%
25〜49
52%
50～74
26%
75〜99
9%
100隻以上
18%
25〜49 44%
25未満 32%
50～74 26%
100隻以上 18%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
25未満
$367 Vol.
32%
25〜49
$332 Vol.
52%
50～74
$65 Vol.
26%
75〜99
$65 Vol.
9%
100隻以上
$45 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed attacks on commercial vessels in early August 2026 have sharply curtailed tanker and cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil before the conflict. Iranian assertions of control, combined with a reimposed US naval blockade and strikes on vessels as recently as August 13, have kept daily transits at low single-digit levels amid elevated insurance costs and routing hesitancy. These conditions underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for 25-49 ships in the week of August 17, while the 34% chance of fewer than 25 reflects risks of further escalation. Higher buckets above 50 remain discounted given persistent instability and the absence of a durable ceasefire or safe-passage agreement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
音量
$874終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed attacks on commercial vessels in early August 2026 have sharply curtailed tanker and cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil before the conflict. Iranian assertions of control, combined with a reimposed US naval blockade and strikes on vessels as recently as August 13, have kept daily transits at low single-digit levels amid elevated insurance costs and routing hesitancy. These conditions underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for 25-49 ships in the week of August 17, while the 34% chance of fewer than 25 reflects risks of further escalation. Higher buckets above 50 remain discounted given persistent instability and the absence of a durable ceasefire or safe-passage agreement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$874終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed attacks on commercial vessels in early August 2026 have sharply curtailed tanker and cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil before the conflict. Iranian assertions of control, combined with a reimposed US naval blockade and strikes on vessels as recently as August 13, have kept daily transits at low single-digit levels amid elevated insurance costs and routing hesitancy. These conditions underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for 25-49 ships in the week of August 17, while the 34% chance of fewer than 25 reflects risks of further escalation. Higher buckets above 50 remain discounted given persistent instability and the absence of a durable ceasefire or safe-passage agreement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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