**Ongoing restrictions and unresolved negotiations between Iran, Oman, and the US continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms.** The waterway has operated under a de facto blockade since late February 2026, with daily crossings recently reported in the low single digits to low teens—far below the pre-crisis average exceeding 60 vessels per day—due to Iranian controls, insurance exclusions, and sanctions risks that deter most Western-linked carriers. Recent developments reinforce low-volume expectations for the week of August 10. Iran’s August 6 draft plan proposing bans on U.S. and Israeli vessels, prior clearance requirements, and potential fees of 5–7% of cargo value has prompted sharp oil price increases while complicating any near-term reopening. Ongoing talks on new routing and an interim agreement have produced only marginal increases in open transits (dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked ships), with industry sources citing unworkable compliance burdens under existing war-risk clauses and U.S. sanctions. Absent a finalized deal or major de-escalation in the next few days, trader consensus prices the 25–49 range highest, reflecting persistent chokepoint friction rather than a full return to normal flows.