**Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, established rapid institutional continuity backed by the IRGC and hardline factions.** This succession occurred amid active conflict and domestic pressures, with Mojtaba receiving a strong majority vote despite reported injuries and limited public appearances since. Traders assign the highest probability (around 26%) to a further leadership change only by mid-2027, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated ability to consolidate power quickly and the absence of major disruptions or viable challengers in the subsequent months. Key variables include Mojtaba’s health trajectory, ongoing military and diplomatic developments with the U.S. and Israel, and any internal factional shifts that could prompt Assembly of Experts reconsideration before the end of 2026 or into 2027. Scheduled institutional processes and escalation or de-escalation signals in the conflict remain the primary near-term catalysts.