Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$197,515 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
1%
$197,515 Vol.
9月30日
$20,245 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$197,515終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$197,515終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問