Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan, combined with the July blockade declaration, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30-40 vessels per day amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting. AIS data show weekly volumes stabilizing around 223-269 crossings, or roughly 32-38 daily, well below the pre-2024 baseline of 60-72 but above crisis lows, with tankers particularly sparse at 4-8 per day. Trader sentiment splits narrowly between the 30-34 and 25-29 buckets because modest Suez recovery signals conditional carrier re-engagement, yet persistent targeting and insurance costs could cap upside or trigger further declines by September-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日30〜34 26.5%
25〜29 26%
25未満 19.4%
35〜39 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
25未満
19%
25〜29
26%
30〜34
27%
35〜39
18%
40以上
12%
30〜34 26.5%
25〜29 26%
25未満 19.4%
35〜39 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
25未満
$338 Vol.
19%
25〜29
$1,081 Vol.
26%
30〜34
$461 Vol.
27%
35〜39
$324 Vol.
18%
40以上
$164 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan, combined with the July blockade declaration, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30-40 vessels per day amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting. AIS data show weekly volumes stabilizing around 223-269 crossings, or roughly 32-38 daily, well below the pre-2024 baseline of 60-72 but above crisis lows, with tankers particularly sparse at 4-8 per day. Trader sentiment splits narrowly between the 30-34 and 25-29 buckets because modest Suez recovery signals conditional carrier re-engagement, yet persistent targeting and insurance costs could cap upside or trigger further declines by September-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
音量
$2,368終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan, combined with the July blockade declaration, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30-40 vessels per day amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting. AIS data show weekly volumes stabilizing around 223-269 crossings, or roughly 32-38 daily, well below the pre-2024 baseline of 60-72 but above crisis lows, with tankers particularly sparse at 4-8 per day. Trader sentiment splits narrowly between the 30-34 and 25-29 buckets because modest Suez recovery signals conditional carrier re-engagement, yet persistent targeting and insurance costs could cap upside or trigger further declines by September-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$2,368終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan, combined with the July blockade declaration, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30-40 vessels per day amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting. AIS data show weekly volumes stabilizing around 223-269 crossings, or roughly 32-38 daily, well below the pre-2024 baseline of 60-72 but above crisis lows, with tankers particularly sparse at 4-8 per day. Trader sentiment splits narrowly between the 30-34 and 25-29 buckets because modest Suez recovery signals conditional carrier re-engagement, yet persistent targeting and insurance costs could cap upside or trigger further declines by September-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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