Recent attacks on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels in mid-August 2026, amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven sharp reductions in Strait of Hormuz traffic, with multiple days recording single-digit transits versus historical daily averages near 60–130 ships. Heightened war-risk premiums, route avoidance, and IRGC activity have reinforced trader caution, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 25–49 weekly transits at 55% implied probability and sub-25 at 33%. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable disruptions from confirmed incidents rather than baseline seasonal patterns, with any near-term diplomatic signals or additional strikes likely to influence resolution around the August 24 week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25〜49 55%
25未満 33%
50～74 8%
75～99 2.7%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
25未満
33%
25〜49
55%
50～74
8%
75～99
3%
100以上
2%
25〜49 55%
25未満 33%
50～74 8%
75～99 2.7%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
25未満
$330 Vol.
33%
25〜49
$355 Vol.
55%
50～74
$71 Vol.
8%
75～99
$109 Vol.
3%
100以上
$62 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels in mid-August 2026, amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven sharp reductions in Strait of Hormuz traffic, with multiple days recording single-digit transits versus historical daily averages near 60–130 ships. Heightened war-risk premiums, route avoidance, and IRGC activity have reinforced trader caution, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 25–49 weekly transits at 55% implied probability and sub-25 at 33%. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable disruptions from confirmed incidents rather than baseline seasonal patterns, with any near-term diplomatic signals or additional strikes likely to influence resolution around the August 24 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
音量
$926終了日
2026/08/30マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels in mid-August 2026, amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven sharp reductions in Strait of Hormuz traffic, with multiple days recording single-digit transits versus historical daily averages near 60–130 ships. Heightened war-risk premiums, route avoidance, and IRGC activity have reinforced trader caution, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 25–49 weekly transits at 55% implied probability and sub-25 at 33%. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable disruptions from confirmed incidents rather than baseline seasonal patterns, with any near-term diplomatic signals or additional strikes likely to influence resolution around the August 24 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$926終了日
2026/08/30マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels in mid-August 2026, amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven sharp reductions in Strait of Hormuz traffic, with multiple days recording single-digit transits versus historical daily averages near 60–130 ships. Heightened war-risk premiums, route avoidance, and IRGC activity have reinforced trader caution, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 25–49 weekly transits at 55% implied probability and sub-25 at 33%. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable disruptions from confirmed incidents rather than baseline seasonal patterns, with any near-term diplomatic signals or additional strikes likely to influence resolution around the August 24 week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問