Heightened Houthi threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels, including a deadly August 11 attack near the strait and subsequent missile activity, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of August 24. These risks sustain elevated war-risk premiums and encourage selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for tankers, while container carriers like MSC test limited “dark” transits. Recent weekly volumes have stabilized near 250 crossings amid mixed signals of partial resumption, supporting the 48% implied probability on 220+ ships. Ongoing volatility from regional tensions and compliance challenges keeps lower buckets priced with meaningful weight, reflecting uncertainty around any near-term normalization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日200-219 27%
180～199 24%
160未満 20%
160～179 20%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
160未満
20%
160～179
20%
180～199
24%
200-219
27%
220以上
46%
200-219 27%
180～199 24%
160未満 20%
160～179 20%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
160未満
$0 Vol.
20%
160～179
$0 Vol.
20%
180～199
$0 Vol.
24%
200-219
$0 Vol.
27%
220以上
$82 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels, including a deadly August 11 attack near the strait and subsequent missile activity, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of August 24. These risks sustain elevated war-risk premiums and encourage selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for tankers, while container carriers like MSC test limited “dark” transits. Recent weekly volumes have stabilized near 250 crossings amid mixed signals of partial resumption, supporting the 48% implied probability on 220+ ships. Ongoing volatility from regional tensions and compliance challenges keeps lower buckets priced with meaningful weight, reflecting uncertainty around any near-term normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
音量
$82終了日
2026/08/30マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels, including a deadly August 11 attack near the strait and subsequent missile activity, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of August 24. These risks sustain elevated war-risk premiums and encourage selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for tankers, while container carriers like MSC test limited “dark” transits. Recent weekly volumes have stabilized near 250 crossings amid mixed signals of partial resumption, supporting the 48% implied probability on 220+ ships. Ongoing volatility from regional tensions and compliance challenges keeps lower buckets priced with meaningful weight, reflecting uncertainty around any near-term normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$82終了日
2026/08/30マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened Houthi threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels, including a deadly August 11 attack near the strait and subsequent missile activity, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of August 24. These risks sustain elevated war-risk premiums and encourage selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for tankers, while container carriers like MSC test limited “dark” transits. Recent weekly volumes have stabilized near 250 crossings amid mixed signals of partial resumption, supporting the 48% implied probability on 220+ ships. Ongoing volatility from regional tensions and compliance challenges keeps lower buckets priced with meaningful weight, reflecting uncertainty around any near-term normalization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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