Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels, represent the dominant catalyst suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits and anchoring trader consensus near 160-199 ships for the week of August 17. The announcement triggered immediate rerouting, with daily passages falling to an average of 31 vessels late in July—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels in deadweight tonnage—before a modest rebound to 39 ships on July 28. Persistent regional tensions, absent fresh attacks since the 2025 ceasefire, sustain uncertainty around oil export flows from Yanbu and carrier risk aversion, producing tightly matched 40% implied probabilities on the central bins. Any de-escalation or confirmed stabilization could shift volumes toward the 200+ outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日160-179 40%
180〜199 40%
200以上 23%
160未満 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
160未満
8%
160-179
40%
180〜199
40%
200以上
23%
160-179 40%
180〜199 40%
200以上 23%
160未満 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
160未満
$218 Vol.
8%
160-179
$0 Vol.
40%
180〜199
$0 Vol.
40%
200以上
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels, represent the dominant catalyst suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits and anchoring trader consensus near 160-199 ships for the week of August 17. The announcement triggered immediate rerouting, with daily passages falling to an average of 31 vessels late in July—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels in deadweight tonnage—before a modest rebound to 39 ships on July 28. Persistent regional tensions, absent fresh attacks since the 2025 ceasefire, sustain uncertainty around oil export flows from Yanbu and carrier risk aversion, producing tightly matched 40% implied probabilities on the central bins. Any de-escalation or confirmed stabilization could shift volumes toward the 200+ outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$218終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels, represent the dominant catalyst suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits and anchoring trader consensus near 160-199 ships for the week of August 17. The announcement triggered immediate rerouting, with daily passages falling to an average of 31 vessels late in July—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels in deadweight tonnage—before a modest rebound to 39 ships on July 28. Persistent regional tensions, absent fresh attacks since the 2025 ceasefire, sustain uncertainty around oil export flows from Yanbu and carrier risk aversion, producing tightly matched 40% implied probabilities on the central bins. Any de-escalation or confirmed stabilization could shift volumes toward the 200+ outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$218終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels, represent the dominant catalyst suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits and anchoring trader consensus near 160-199 ships for the week of August 17. The announcement triggered immediate rerouting, with daily passages falling to an average of 31 vessels late in July—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels in deadweight tonnage—before a modest rebound to 39 ships on July 28. Persistent regional tensions, absent fresh attacks since the 2025 ceasefire, sustain uncertainty around oil export flows from Yanbu and carrier risk aversion, producing tightly matched 40% implied probabilities on the central bins. Any de-escalation or confirmed stabilization could shift volumes toward the 200+ outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問