**Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate energy market volatility and shipping risk premiums, with U.S. naval facilitation of over 1,200 commercial transits since June supporting limited oil exports amid an active blockade that has held Iranian crude shipments near zero.** Multinational commitments announced in May 2026 by the UK, France, and partners—including HMS Dragon, the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, and European minehunters—aim to secure navigation routes, though later reluctance from Japan, Australia, and others has tempered expectations for a broad coalition. Attacks on vessels in August, including strikes on Kuwaiti and other tankers, have sustained elevated hull and war risk insurance rates while constraining daily transits well below the pre-conflict average of ~138. Upcoming catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress on corridors and FOMC or energy inventory releases that could shift tanker rates and Brent/WTI pricing. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained U.S. presence versus limited additional national deployments by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$37,625 Vol.
2026/12/31
アメリカ
21%
イタリア
14%
イギリス
11%
フランス
10%
オーストラリア
10%
オランダ
9%
ドイツ
9%
ギリシャ
33%
$37,625 Vol.
アメリカ
$7,112 Vol.
21%
イタリア
$16 Vol.
14%
イギリス
$37 Vol.
11%
フランス
$14,000 Vol.
10%
オーストラリア
$0 Vol.
10%
オランダ
$16,402 Vol.
9%
ドイツ
$6 Vol.
9%
ギリシャ
$52 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate energy market volatility and shipping risk premiums, with U.S. naval facilitation of over 1,200 commercial transits since June supporting limited oil exports amid an active blockade that has held Iranian crude shipments near zero.** Multinational commitments announced in May 2026 by the UK, France, and partners—including HMS Dragon, the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, and European minehunters—aim to secure navigation routes, though later reluctance from Japan, Australia, and others has tempered expectations for a broad coalition. Attacks on vessels in August, including strikes on Kuwaiti and other tankers, have sustained elevated hull and war risk insurance rates while constraining daily transits well below the pre-conflict average of ~138. Upcoming catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress on corridors and FOMC or energy inventory releases that could shift tanker rates and Brent/WTI pricing. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained U.S. presence versus limited additional national deployments by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$37,625終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate energy market volatility and shipping risk premiums, with U.S. naval facilitation of over 1,200 commercial transits since June supporting limited oil exports amid an active blockade that has held Iranian crude shipments near zero.** Multinational commitments announced in May 2026 by the UK, France, and partners—including HMS Dragon, the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, and European minehunters—aim to secure navigation routes, though later reluctance from Japan, Australia, and others has tempered expectations for a broad coalition. Attacks on vessels in August, including strikes on Kuwaiti and other tankers, have sustained elevated hull and war risk insurance rates while constraining daily transits well below the pre-conflict average of ~138. Upcoming catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress on corridors and FOMC or energy inventory releases that could shift tanker rates and Brent/WTI pricing. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained U.S. presence versus limited additional national deployments by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$37,625終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate energy market volatility and shipping risk premiums, with U.S. naval facilitation of over 1,200 commercial transits since June supporting limited oil exports amid an active blockade that has held Iranian crude shipments near zero.** Multinational commitments announced in May 2026 by the UK, France, and partners—including HMS Dragon, the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, and European minehunters—aim to secure navigation routes, though later reluctance from Japan, Australia, and others has tempered expectations for a broad coalition. Attacks on vessels in August, including strikes on Kuwaiti and other tankers, have sustained elevated hull and war risk insurance rates while constraining daily transits well below the pre-conflict average of ~138. Upcoming catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress on corridors and FOMC or energy inventory releases that could shift tanker rates and Brent/WTI pricing. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained U.S. presence versus limited additional national deployments by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問