Ongoing geopolitical tensions and IRGC enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz keep daily commercial transits well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 130 vessels, producing tightly clustered Polymarket odds across sub-40 ranges. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions favoring Iranian-controlled lanes, and selective turn-back orders have raised insurance and operational costs for tankers, deterring non-state operators while Chinese and Indian flows provide limited support. Recent attacks on vessels using alternative corridors and renewed sanctions exposure have reinforced caution, with oil price volatility and any fresh diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term sentiment ahead of the September 7–13 period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20未満 23%
25〜29 20%
35〜39 19%
20〜24 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/13
20未満
23%
20〜24
18%
25〜29
20%
30〜34
12%
35〜39
19%
40隻以上
10%
20未満 23%
25〜29 20%
35〜39 19%
20〜24 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/13
20未満
$732 Vol.
23%
20〜24
$185 Vol.
18%
25〜29
$285 Vol.
20%
30〜34
$207 Vol.
12%
35〜39
$107 Vol.
19%
40隻以上
$233 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and IRGC enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz keep daily commercial transits well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 130 vessels, producing tightly clustered Polymarket odds across sub-40 ranges. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions favoring Iranian-controlled lanes, and selective turn-back orders have raised insurance and operational costs for tankers, deterring non-state operators while Chinese and Indian flows provide limited support. Recent attacks on vessels using alternative corridors and renewed sanctions exposure have reinforced caution, with oil price volatility and any fresh diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term sentiment ahead of the September 7–13 period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
音量
$1,749終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and IRGC enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz keep daily commercial transits well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 130 vessels, producing tightly clustered Polymarket odds across sub-40 ranges. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions favoring Iranian-controlled lanes, and selective turn-back orders have raised insurance and operational costs for tankers, deterring non-state operators while Chinese and Indian flows provide limited support. Recent attacks on vessels using alternative corridors and renewed sanctions exposure have reinforced caution, with oil price volatility and any fresh diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term sentiment ahead of the September 7–13 period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$1,749終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions and IRGC enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz keep daily commercial transits well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 130 vessels, producing tightly clustered Polymarket odds across sub-40 ranges. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions favoring Iranian-controlled lanes, and selective turn-back orders have raised insurance and operational costs for tankers, deterring non-state operators while Chinese and Indian flows provide limited support. Recent attacks on vessels using alternative corridors and renewed sanctions exposure have reinforced caution, with oil price volatility and any fresh diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term sentiment ahead of the September 7–13 period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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