Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s international alignments, which have stalled substantive negotiations despite multiple rounds of US-facilitated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026. A brief three-day ceasefire in May produced a prisoner exchange but yielded no extension or broader framework, with Russian statements emphasizing that a lasting deal is still distant. Recent developments include Ukraine’s submission of fresh proposals to US negotiators in August, Russia’s rejection of limited Black Sea measures, and continued frontline activity amid reports of short-term pause proposals serving tactical rather than diplomatic ends. Traders appear to weigh these entrenched positions and lack of momentum against any near-term official ceasefire agreement by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$5,923,414 Vol.
2026/10/30
10月31日
10%
8月31日
3%
12月31日
22%
2027年3月31日
54%
2027年6月30日
65%
$5,923,414 Vol.
10月31日
$848,925 Vol.
10%
8月31日
$392,424 Vol.
3%
12月31日
$2,144,708 Vol.
22%
2027年3月31日
$15 Vol.
54%
2027年6月30日
$10 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s international alignments, which have stalled substantive negotiations despite multiple rounds of US-facilitated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026. A brief three-day ceasefire in May produced a prisoner exchange but yielded no extension or broader framework, with Russian statements emphasizing that a lasting deal is still distant. Recent developments include Ukraine’s submission of fresh proposals to US negotiators in August, Russia’s rejection of limited Black Sea measures, and continued frontline activity amid reports of short-term pause proposals serving tactical rather than diplomatic ends. Traders appear to weigh these entrenched positions and lack of momentum against any near-term official ceasefire agreement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
音量
$5,923,414終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s international alignments, which have stalled substantive negotiations despite multiple rounds of US-facilitated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026. A brief three-day ceasefire in May produced a prisoner exchange but yielded no extension or broader framework, with Russian statements emphasizing that a lasting deal is still distant. Recent developments include Ukraine’s submission of fresh proposals to US negotiators in August, Russia’s rejection of limited Black Sea measures, and continued frontline activity amid reports of short-term pause proposals serving tactical rather than diplomatic ends. Traders appear to weigh these entrenched positions and lack of momentum against any near-term official ceasefire agreement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$5,923,414終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s international alignments, which have stalled substantive negotiations despite multiple rounds of US-facilitated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026. A brief three-day ceasefire in May produced a prisoner exchange but yielded no extension or broader framework, with Russian statements emphasizing that a lasting deal is still distant. Recent developments include Ukraine’s submission of fresh proposals to US negotiators in August, Russia’s rejection of limited Black Sea measures, and continued frontline activity amid reports of short-term pause proposals serving tactical rather than diplomatic ends. Traders appear to weigh these entrenched positions and lack of momentum against any near-term official ceasefire agreement by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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