Ongoing military operations and civilian strikes across Ukraine in mid-August 2026, combined with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, underscore the absence of any ceasefire or framework agreement. Core disputes over Donbas territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved despite earlier 2025-2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner exchanges. Russia continues to reject unconditional ceasefires while advancing on multiple fronts, and no formal talks or announcements have occurred in the weeks leading to the August 31 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects these entrenched positions and the one-week window. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on maximalist demands or an unforeseen diplomatic concession, both viewed as improbable given recent battlefield dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
<1% 確率
$272,219 Vol.
$272,219 Vol.
2026/08/31
はい
<1% 確率
$272,219 Vol.
$272,219 Vol.
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations and civilian strikes across Ukraine in mid-August 2026, combined with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, underscore the absence of any ceasefire or framework agreement. Core disputes over Donbas territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved despite earlier 2025-2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner exchanges. Russia continues to reject unconditional ceasefires while advancing on multiple fronts, and no formal talks or announcements have occurred in the weeks leading to the August 31 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects these entrenched positions and the one-week window. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on maximalist demands or an unforeseen diplomatic concession, both viewed as improbable given recent battlefield dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
音量
$272,219終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations and civilian strikes across Ukraine in mid-August 2026, combined with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, underscore the absence of any ceasefire or framework agreement. Core disputes over Donbas territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved despite earlier 2025-2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner exchanges. Russia continues to reject unconditional ceasefires while advancing on multiple fronts, and no formal talks or announcements have occurred in the weeks leading to the August 31 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects these entrenched positions and the one-week window. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on maximalist demands or an unforeseen diplomatic concession, both viewed as improbable given recent battlefield dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$272,219終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and civilian strikes across Ukraine in mid-August 2026, combined with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, underscore the absence of any ceasefire or framework agreement. Core disputes over Donbas territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved despite earlier 2025-2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner exchanges. Russia continues to reject unconditional ceasefires while advancing on multiple fronts, and no formal talks or announcements have occurred in the weeks leading to the August 31 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects these entrenched positions and the one-week window. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on maximalist demands or an unforeseen diplomatic concession, both viewed as improbable given recent battlefield dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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