Congressional resistance remains the dominant factor behind the 87% "No" odds on approval of any Iran nuclear deal in 2026. Republican senators including Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, and Ted Cruz have publicly conditioned support on complete dismantlement of Iran's enrichment program, limits on missiles and regional activities, and Senate ratification, while a May 2025 bipartisan letter signed by 52 senators and 177 House members rejected deals preserving enrichment pathways. The June 2026 interim MOU easing sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate bipartisan calls for INARA-mandated review, with lawmakers expressing distrust over implementation and seeking stricter terms before any final agreement. These procedural and substantive hurdles, reinforced by ongoing technical talks, sustain trader consensus that Congress is unlikely to grant approval this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
11% 確率
$12,413 Vol.
$12,413 Vol.
2026/12/31
11% 確率
$12,413 Vol.
$12,413 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Congressional resistance remains the dominant factor behind the 87% "No" odds on approval of any Iran nuclear deal in 2026. Republican senators including Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, and Ted Cruz have publicly conditioned support on complete dismantlement of Iran's enrichment program, limits on missiles and regional activities, and Senate ratification, while a May 2025 bipartisan letter signed by 52 senators and 177 House members rejected deals preserving enrichment pathways. The June 2026 interim MOU easing sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate bipartisan calls for INARA-mandated review, with lawmakers expressing distrust over implementation and seeking stricter terms before any final agreement. These procedural and substantive hurdles, reinforced by ongoing technical talks, sustain trader consensus that Congress is unlikely to grant approval this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$12,413終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Congressional resistance remains the dominant factor behind the 87% "No" odds on approval of any Iran nuclear deal in 2026. Republican senators including Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, and Ted Cruz have publicly conditioned support on complete dismantlement of Iran's enrichment program, limits on missiles and regional activities, and Senate ratification, while a May 2025 bipartisan letter signed by 52 senators and 177 House members rejected deals preserving enrichment pathways. The June 2026 interim MOU easing sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate bipartisan calls for INARA-mandated review, with lawmakers expressing distrust over implementation and seeking stricter terms before any final agreement. These procedural and substantive hurdles, reinforced by ongoing technical talks, sustain trader consensus that Congress is unlikely to grant approval this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$12,413終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional resistance remains the dominant factor behind the 87% "No" odds on approval of any Iran nuclear deal in 2026. Republican senators including Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, and Ted Cruz have publicly conditioned support on complete dismantlement of Iran's enrichment program, limits on missiles and regional activities, and Senate ratification, while a May 2025 bipartisan letter signed by 52 senators and 177 House members rejected deals preserving enrichment pathways. The June 2026 interim MOU easing sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate bipartisan calls for INARA-mandated review, with lawmakers expressing distrust over implementation and seeking stricter terms before any final agreement. These procedural and substantive hurdles, reinforced by ongoing technical talks, sustain trader consensus that Congress is unlikely to grant approval this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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