**Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.** That 14-point MOU ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window (expiring around August 17) for broader talks on sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, ballistic missiles, and IAEA inspections. It explicitly envisioned a final agreement endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, similar to Resolution 2231 for the 2015 JCPOA. No comprehensive final deal has materialized. Technical talks in late June produced limited progress on inspections and partial sanctions waivers, yet core disagreements persist over the scope of Iran's nuclear program and verification. Earlier 2026 conflict, including UNSC Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian actions, and subsequent diplomatic efforts have not yielded the required breakthrough. With the negotiation deadline passed and no reported advances by mid-August, traders assess the likelihood of a finalized, UNSC-endorsed accord before year-end as low. Key variables that could still shift odds include renewed high-level diplomacy, verifiable compliance steps, or changes in regional dynamics before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
22% 確率
$161,512 Vol.
$161,512 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
22% 確率
$161,512 Vol.
$161,512 Vol.
2026/12/31
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.** That 14-point MOU ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window (expiring around August 17) for broader talks on sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, ballistic missiles, and IAEA inspections. It explicitly envisioned a final agreement endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, similar to Resolution 2231 for the 2015 JCPOA.
No comprehensive final deal has materialized. Technical talks in late June produced limited progress on inspections and partial sanctions waivers, yet core disagreements persist over the scope of Iran's nuclear program and verification. Earlier 2026 conflict, including UNSC Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian actions, and subsequent diplomatic efforts have not yielded the required breakthrough. With the negotiation deadline passed and no reported advances by mid-August, traders assess the likelihood of a finalized, UNSC-endorsed accord before year-end as low.
Key variables that could still shift odds include renewed high-level diplomacy, verifiable compliance steps, or changes in regional dynamics before December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
音量
$161,512終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.** That 14-point MOU ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window (expiring around August 17) for broader talks on sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, ballistic missiles, and IAEA inspections. It explicitly envisioned a final agreement endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, similar to Resolution 2231 for the 2015 JCPOA.
No comprehensive final deal has materialized. Technical talks in late June produced limited progress on inspections and partial sanctions waivers, yet core disagreements persist over the scope of Iran's nuclear program and verification. Earlier 2026 conflict, including UNSC Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian actions, and subsequent diplomatic efforts have not yielded the required breakthrough. With the negotiation deadline passed and no reported advances by mid-August, traders assess the likelihood of a finalized, UNSC-endorsed accord before year-end as low.
Key variables that could still shift odds include renewed high-level diplomacy, verifiable compliance steps, or changes in regional dynamics before December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$161,512終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.** That 14-point MOU ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window (expiring around August 17) for broader talks on sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, ballistic missiles, and IAEA inspections. It explicitly envisioned a final agreement endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution, similar to Resolution 2231 for the 2015 JCPOA. No comprehensive final deal has materialized. Technical talks in late June produced limited progress on inspections and partial sanctions waivers, yet core disagreements persist over the scope of Iran's nuclear program and verification. Earlier 2026 conflict, including UNSC Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian actions, and subsequent diplomatic efforts have not yielded the required breakthrough. With the negotiation deadline passed and no reported advances by mid-August, traders assess the likelihood of a finalized, UNSC-endorsed accord before year-end as low. Key variables that could still shift odds include renewed high-level diplomacy, verifiable compliance steps, or changes in regional dynamics before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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