U.S. policy under the current administration has emphasized designating multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and expanding military and interagency efforts against them beyond U.S. borders. This includes over 60 boat strikes in Caribbean and Pacific waters that have killed hundreds, joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Guatemala, and intelligence support for Mexican forces in actions like the February 2026 operation that eliminated a major CJNG leader. Trader sentiment reflects these developments alongside ongoing coalition talks and Defense Department statements urging expanded land-based cooperation in Latin America. Mexican officials have repeatedly signaled strong opposition to unauthorized U.S. personnel on their soil, citing sovereignty concerns after incidents involving U.S. officials in anti-narcotics activities earlier in 2026. Markets price high probabilities for broader foreign operations by late 2025 or 2026 deadlines but assign near-zero odds to direct U.S. ground participation inside Mexico by the earliest cutoffs, consistent with historical patterns of bilateral friction. Scheduled coalition meetings and potential new agreements with additional countries remain key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
8月31日
16%
9月30日
41%
10月31日
49%
$399 Vol.
8月31日
$20 Vol.
16%
9月30日
$37 Vol.
41%
10月31日
$342 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.
To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.U.S. policy under the current administration has emphasized designating multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and expanding military and interagency efforts against them beyond U.S. borders. This includes over 60 boat strikes in Caribbean and Pacific waters that have killed hundreds, joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Guatemala, and intelligence support for Mexican forces in actions like the February 2026 operation that eliminated a major CJNG leader. Trader sentiment reflects these developments alongside ongoing coalition talks and Defense Department statements urging expanded land-based cooperation in Latin America. Mexican officials have repeatedly signaled strong opposition to unauthorized U.S. personnel on their soil, citing sovereignty concerns after incidents involving U.S. officials in anti-narcotics activities earlier in 2026. Markets price high probabilities for broader foreign operations by late 2025 or 2026 deadlines but assign near-zero odds to direct U.S. ground participation inside Mexico by the earliest cutoffs, consistent with historical patterns of bilateral friction. Scheduled coalition meetings and potential new agreements with additional countries remain key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.
To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.
To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 11:26 AM ET
音量
$399終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.
To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.U.S. policy under the current administration has emphasized designating multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and expanding military and interagency efforts against them beyond U.S. borders. This includes over 60 boat strikes in Caribbean and Pacific waters that have killed hundreds, joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Guatemala, and intelligence support for Mexican forces in actions like the February 2026 operation that eliminated a major CJNG leader. Trader sentiment reflects these developments alongside ongoing coalition talks and Defense Department statements urging expanded land-based cooperation in Latin America. Mexican officials have repeatedly signaled strong opposition to unauthorized U.S. personnel on their soil, citing sovereignty concerns after incidents involving U.S. officials in anti-narcotics activities earlier in 2026. Markets price high probabilities for broader foreign operations by late 2025 or 2026 deadlines but assign near-zero odds to direct U.S. ground participation inside Mexico by the earliest cutoffs, consistent with historical patterns of bilateral friction. Scheduled coalition meetings and potential new agreements with additional countries remain key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.
To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.
To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
音量
$399終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy under the current administration has emphasized designating multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and expanding military and interagency efforts against them beyond U.S. borders. This includes over 60 boat strikes in Caribbean and Pacific waters that have killed hundreds, joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Guatemala, and intelligence support for Mexican forces in actions like the February 2026 operation that eliminated a major CJNG leader. Trader sentiment reflects these developments alongside ongoing coalition talks and Defense Department statements urging expanded land-based cooperation in Latin America. Mexican officials have repeatedly signaled strong opposition to unauthorized U.S. personnel on their soil, citing sovereignty concerns after incidents involving U.S. officials in anti-narcotics activities earlier in 2026. Markets price high probabilities for broader foreign operations by late 2025 or 2026 deadlines but assign near-zero odds to direct U.S. ground participation inside Mexico by the earliest cutoffs, consistent with historical patterns of bilateral friction. Scheduled coalition meetings and potential new agreements with additional countries remain key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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