The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in Arizona's 6th congressional district race against incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani ahead of the November 3 general election. Primaries concluded on July 21 with both candidates advancing unopposed, setting up a contest in one of the nation's most evenly balanced House districts where the prior presidential vote was decided by under one point. Early 2026 polling showed the matchup nearly tied, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with typical midterm dynamics where the opposition party often gains ground through turnout patterns, fundraising, and national conditions. Key variables that could alter the outcome include subsequent polling shifts, campaign spending, and voter mobilization in this battleground seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
83%
共和党
18%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$3,889 Vol.
83%
共和党
$5,982 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in Arizona's 6th congressional district race against incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani ahead of the November 3 general election. Primaries concluded on July 21 with both candidates advancing unopposed, setting up a contest in one of the nation's most evenly balanced House districts where the prior presidential vote was decided by under one point. Early 2026 polling showed the matchup nearly tied, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with typical midterm dynamics where the opposition party often gains ground through turnout patterns, fundraising, and national conditions. Key variables that could alter the outcome include subsequent polling shifts, campaign spending, and voter mobilization in this battleground seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
音量
$9,871終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in Arizona's 6th congressional district race against incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani ahead of the November 3 general election. Primaries concluded on July 21 with both candidates advancing unopposed, setting up a contest in one of the nation's most evenly balanced House districts where the prior presidential vote was decided by under one point. Early 2026 polling showed the matchup nearly tied, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with typical midterm dynamics where the opposition party often gains ground through turnout patterns, fundraising, and national conditions. Key variables that could alter the outcome include subsequent polling shifts, campaign spending, and voter mobilization in this battleground seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,871終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong position in Arizona's 6th congressional district race against incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani ahead of the November 3 general election. Primaries concluded on July 21 with both candidates advancing unopposed, setting up a contest in one of the nation's most evenly balanced House districts where the prior presidential vote was decided by under one point. Early 2026 polling showed the matchup nearly tied, yet trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with typical midterm dynamics where the opposition party often gains ground through turnout patterns, fundraising, and national conditions. Key variables that could alter the outcome include subsequent polling shifts, campaign spending, and voter mobilization in this battleground seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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