Rhode Island’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+12 and consistent Democratic control since the mid-1990s. Incumbent Gabe Amo secured 63 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only nominal primary opposition ahead of the September 9, 2026 contest, while the Republican nominee, entrepreneur Kellie Keenan, enters a general-election environment where structural factors heavily favor the Democratic ticket. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95 percent implied probability because the district’s urban and suburban voter base, combined with Amo’s established fundraising and name recognition, has produced double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require either a significant national Republican wave that fails to materialize in deep-blue Rhode Island or an unforeseen personal or legal development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,011 Vol.
$13,011 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$13,011 Vol.
$13,011 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$6,040 Vol.
95%
共和党
$6,971 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rhode Island’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+12 and consistent Democratic control since the mid-1990s. Incumbent Gabe Amo secured 63 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only nominal primary opposition ahead of the September 9, 2026 contest, while the Republican nominee, entrepreneur Kellie Keenan, enters a general-election environment where structural factors heavily favor the Democratic ticket. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95 percent implied probability because the district’s urban and suburban voter base, combined with Amo’s established fundraising and name recognition, has produced double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require either a significant national Republican wave that fails to materialize in deep-blue Rhode Island or an unforeseen personal or legal development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$13,011終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rhode Island’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+12 and consistent Democratic control since the mid-1990s. Incumbent Gabe Amo secured 63 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only nominal primary opposition ahead of the September 9, 2026 contest, while the Republican nominee, entrepreneur Kellie Keenan, enters a general-election environment where structural factors heavily favor the Democratic ticket. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95 percent implied probability because the district’s urban and suburban voter base, combined with Amo’s established fundraising and name recognition, has produced double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require either a significant national Republican wave that fails to materialize in deep-blue Rhode Island or an unforeseen personal or legal development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,011終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rhode Island’s 1st congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+12 and consistent Democratic control since the mid-1990s. Incumbent Gabe Amo secured 63 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only nominal primary opposition ahead of the September 9, 2026 contest, while the Republican nominee, entrepreneur Kellie Keenan, enters a general-election environment where structural factors heavily favor the Democratic ticket. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95 percent implied probability because the district’s urban and suburban voter base, combined with Amo’s established fundraising and name recognition, has produced double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require either a significant national Republican wave that fails to materialize in deep-blue Rhode Island or an unforeseen personal or legal development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問