Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,658 Vol.
$33,658 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$33,658 Vol.
$33,658 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$25,617 Vol.
95%
共和党
$8,041 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$33,658終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,658終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問