NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$56,270 Vol.
$56,270 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
73%
民主党
26%
$56,270 Vol.
$56,270 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$26,804 Vol.
73%
民主党
$29,466 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$56,270終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$56,270終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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