The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid sustained external military pressure and domestic economic strain underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions after 2026 strikes, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through August appointments of hard-line military and security figures, prioritizing internal control and confrontation readiness without evident elite fractures or mass defections. Earlier protest waves were contained via repression, and no verifiable indicators of rapid institutional breakdown have emerged in recent weeks. While scenarios such as sudden elite infighting, escalated unrest triggered by acute shortages, or intensified strikes could theoretically shift dynamics, the regime's track record of managing crises within the short remaining window supports the overwhelming market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre?
Sì
1% probabilità
$1,966,987 Vol.
$1,966,987 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$1,966,987 Vol.
$1,966,987 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid sustained external military pressure and domestic economic strain underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions after 2026 strikes, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through August appointments of hard-line military and security figures, prioritizing internal control and confrontation readiness without evident elite fractures or mass defections. Earlier protest waves were contained via repression, and no verifiable indicators of rapid institutional breakdown have emerged in recent weeks. While scenarios such as sudden elite infighting, escalated unrest triggered by acute shortages, or intensified strikes could theoretically shift dynamics, the regime's track record of managing crises within the short remaining window supports the overwhelming market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,966,987Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid sustained external military pressure and domestic economic strain underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions after 2026 strikes, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through August appointments of hard-line military and security figures, prioritizing internal control and confrontation readiness without evident elite fractures or mass defections. Earlier protest waves were contained via repression, and no verifiable indicators of rapid institutional breakdown have emerged in recent weeks. While scenarios such as sudden elite infighting, escalated unrest triggered by acute shortages, or intensified strikes could theoretically shift dynamics, the regime's track record of managing crises within the short remaining window supports the overwhelming market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,966,987Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid sustained external military pressure and domestic economic strain underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions after 2026 strikes, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through August appointments of hard-line military and security figures, prioritizing internal control and confrontation readiness without evident elite fractures or mass defections. Earlier protest waves were contained via repression, and no verifiable indicators of rapid institutional breakdown have emerged in recent weeks. While scenarios such as sudden elite infighting, escalated unrest triggered by acute shortages, or intensified strikes could theoretically shift dynamics, the regime's track record of managing crises within the short remaining window supports the overwhelming market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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