US-Iran tensions remain elevated following 2026 airstrikes and a fragile June ceasefire, yet diplomatic channels through Oman, Qatar, and intermediaries have produced ongoing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and de-escalation as of mid-August. President Trump has described US actions as “low-key” while emphasizing economic pressure, and Iranian officials signal willingness to negotiate indirectly without conceding on core missile or nuclear issues. These developments, combined with the short remaining timeline before 2027 and absence of announced ground operations or mobilization for regime-change invasion, underpin trader consensus against a US invasion. Scheduled diplomatic milestones and risks of broader regional escalation further support the current implied probability.