Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalated regional conflict, triggering the constitutional succession process via the Assembly of Experts. A temporary three-member leadership council assumed powers under Article 111, while the 88-member Assembly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March following deliberations among clerical and political figures. This rapid transition occurred amid prior speculation over health concerns, potential successors including Mojtaba or figures like Alireza Arafi, and domestic pressures from protests and economic strain. With the position now filled, markets tied to specific deadlines have incorporated the confirmed outcome, while any remaining uncertainty centers on the new leader's consolidation of authority, ongoing funeral proceedings, and external diplomatic or military developments that could influence regime stability through late 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$23,612,457 Vol.
22 ago 2026
22 agosto
<1%
31 agosto
1%
30 settembre
5%
31 ottobre
8%
30 novembre
11%
31 dicembre
17%
30 giugno 2027
26%
$23,612,457 Vol.
22 agosto
$59,233 Vol.
<1%
31 agosto
$1,178,795 Vol.
1%
30 settembre
$465,118 Vol.
5%
31 ottobre
$14,071 Vol.
8%
30 novembre
$12,278 Vol.
11%
31 dicembre
$4,033,570 Vol.
17%
30 giugno 2027
$241,200 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalated regional conflict, triggering the constitutional succession process via the Assembly of Experts. A temporary three-member leadership council assumed powers under Article 111, while the 88-member Assembly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March following deliberations among clerical and political figures. This rapid transition occurred amid prior speculation over health concerns, potential successors including Mojtaba or figures like Alireza Arafi, and domestic pressures from protests and economic strain. With the position now filled, markets tied to specific deadlines have incorporated the confirmed outcome, while any remaining uncertainty centers on the new leader's consolidation of authority, ongoing funeral proceedings, and external diplomatic or military developments that could influence regime stability through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,612,457Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalated regional conflict, triggering the constitutional succession process via the Assembly of Experts. A temporary three-member leadership council assumed powers under Article 111, while the 88-member Assembly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March following deliberations among clerical and political figures. This rapid transition occurred amid prior speculation over health concerns, potential successors including Mojtaba or figures like Alireza Arafi, and domestic pressures from protests and economic strain. With the position now filled, markets tied to specific deadlines have incorporated the confirmed outcome, while any remaining uncertainty centers on the new leader's consolidation of authority, ongoing funeral proceedings, and external diplomatic or military developments that could influence regime stability through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,612,457Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalated regional conflict, triggering the constitutional succession process via the Assembly of Experts. A temporary three-member leadership council assumed powers under Article 111, while the 88-member Assembly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March following deliberations among clerical and political figures. This rapid transition occurred amid prior speculation over health concerns, potential successors including Mojtaba or figures like Alireza Arafi, and domestic pressures from protests and economic strain. With the position now filled, markets tied to specific deadlines have incorporated the confirmed outcome, while any remaining uncertainty centers on the new leader's consolidation of authority, ongoing funeral proceedings, and external diplomatic or military developments that could influence regime stability through late 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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