Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict have repeatedly prompted temporary closures or broad suspensions of civilian flights in the Tel Aviv FIR, including multiple instances from February through July 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the airspace remains open after phased reopenings, yet EASA risk advisories persist amid volatile security conditions, including intercepts of projectiles from Yemen and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian retaliation risks, Israeli security assessments by officials such as Transportation Minister Miri Regev, and the potential for short-notice halts tied to regional military developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$27,009,009 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
<1%
31 agosto
6%
$27,009,009 Vol.
15 agosto
$964,761 Vol.
<1%
31 agosto
$1,021,763 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict have repeatedly prompted temporary closures or broad suspensions of civilian flights in the Tel Aviv FIR, including multiple instances from February through July 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the airspace remains open after phased reopenings, yet EASA risk advisories persist amid volatile security conditions, including intercepts of projectiles from Yemen and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian retaliation risks, Israeli security assessments by officials such as Transportation Minister Miri Regev, and the potential for short-notice halts tied to regional military developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$27,009,009Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict have repeatedly prompted temporary closures or broad suspensions of civilian flights in the Tel Aviv FIR, including multiple instances from February through July 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the airspace remains open after phased reopenings, yet EASA risk advisories persist amid volatile security conditions, including intercepts of projectiles from Yemen and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian retaliation risks, Israeli security assessments by officials such as Transportation Minister Miri Regev, and the potential for short-notice halts tied to regional military developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,009,009Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict have repeatedly prompted temporary closures or broad suspensions of civilian flights in the Tel Aviv FIR, including multiple instances from February through July 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the airspace remains open after phased reopenings, yet EASA risk advisories persist amid volatile security conditions, including intercepts of projectiles from Yemen and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian retaliation risks, Israeli security assessments by officials such as Transportation Minister Miri Regev, and the potential for short-notice halts tied to regional military developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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