U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
August 31
2%
September 30
4%
$2,924 Vol.
August 31
$2,290 Vol.
2%
September 30
$634 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,924Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,924Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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