**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, Iranian oil infrastructure, and diplomatic arrangements rather than territorial seizure of Hormuz Island itself.** Iran has asserted administrative control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, enforced traffic schemes, and pursued Oman negotiations under the June memorandum of understanding, while rejecting parallel routes. US and Gulf responses include targeted strikes on missile sites, radar, and small craft near islands like Larak, plus statements opposing Iranian tolls or sole management. No credible reports indicate ground operations, amphibious assaults, or shifts in sovereignty over Hormuz Island, which functions primarily as an observation outpost. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to any near-term change in control, consistent with the conflict’s emphasis on interdiction, sanctions relief, and cease-fire talks over island-level occupation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and potential further naval actions remain the main near-term variables.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Hormuz non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Hormuz non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$70,725 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
2%
$70,725 Vol.
30 settembre
$448 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, Iranian oil infrastructure, and diplomatic arrangements rather than territorial seizure of Hormuz Island itself.** Iran has asserted administrative control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, enforced traffic schemes, and pursued Oman negotiations under the June memorandum of understanding, while rejecting parallel routes. US and Gulf responses include targeted strikes on missile sites, radar, and small craft near islands like Larak, plus statements opposing Iranian tolls or sole management. No credible reports indicate ground operations, amphibious assaults, or shifts in sovereignty over Hormuz Island, which functions primarily as an observation outpost. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to any near-term change in control, consistent with the conflict’s emphasis on interdiction, sanctions relief, and cease-fire talks over island-level occupation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and potential further naval actions remain the main near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$70,725Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, Iranian oil infrastructure, and diplomatic arrangements rather than territorial seizure of Hormuz Island itself.** Iran has asserted administrative control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, enforced traffic schemes, and pursued Oman negotiations under the June memorandum of understanding, while rejecting parallel routes. US and Gulf responses include targeted strikes on missile sites, radar, and small craft near islands like Larak, plus statements opposing Iranian tolls or sole management. No credible reports indicate ground operations, amphibious assaults, or shifts in sovereignty over Hormuz Island, which functions primarily as an observation outpost. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to any near-term change in control, consistent with the conflict’s emphasis on interdiction, sanctions relief, and cease-fire talks over island-level occupation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and potential further naval actions remain the main near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$70,725Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, Iranian oil infrastructure, and diplomatic arrangements rather than territorial seizure of Hormuz Island itself.** Iran has asserted administrative control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, enforced traffic schemes, and pursued Oman negotiations under the June memorandum of understanding, while rejecting parallel routes. US and Gulf responses include targeted strikes on missile sites, radar, and small craft near islands like Larak, plus statements opposing Iranian tolls or sole management. No credible reports indicate ground operations, amphibious assaults, or shifts in sovereignty over Hormuz Island, which functions primarily as an observation outpost. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to any near-term change in control, consistent with the conflict’s emphasis on interdiction, sanctions relief, and cease-fire talks over island-level occupation. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and potential further naval actions remain the main near-term variables.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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