US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Abu Musa and nearby islands, including missile storage and coastal defenses, as part of broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has retained full administrative and military control since 1971, with the IRGC recently deploying additional missile systems there and promoting civilian settlement to reinforce sovereignty claims. The UAE continues to assert the islands as occupied territory through GCC and EU statements, while pressing for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, though no territorial change has occurred. Diplomatic friction and Iranian military posturing remain the dominant factors shaping trader views on any near-term shift in control.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Abu Musa non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Abu Musa non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$94,379 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
2%
$94,379 Vol.
30 settembre
$980 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Abu Musa and nearby islands, including missile storage and coastal defenses, as part of broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has retained full administrative and military control since 1971, with the IRGC recently deploying additional missile systems there and promoting civilian settlement to reinforce sovereignty claims. The UAE continues to assert the islands as occupied territory through GCC and EU statements, while pressing for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, though no territorial change has occurred. Diplomatic friction and Iranian military posturing remain the dominant factors shaping trader views on any near-term shift in control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$94,379Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Abu Musa and nearby islands, including missile storage and coastal defenses, as part of broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has retained full administrative and military control since 1971, with the IRGC recently deploying additional missile systems there and promoting civilian settlement to reinforce sovereignty claims. The UAE continues to assert the islands as occupied territory through GCC and EU statements, while pressing for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, though no territorial change has occurred. Diplomatic friction and Iranian military posturing remain the dominant factors shaping trader views on any near-term shift in control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$94,379Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Abu Musa and nearby islands, including missile storage and coastal defenses, as part of broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has retained full administrative and military control since 1971, with the IRGC recently deploying additional missile systems there and promoting civilian settlement to reinforce sovereignty claims. The UAE continues to assert the islands as occupied territory through GCC and EU statements, while pressing for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, though no territorial change has occurred. Diplomatic friction and Iranian military posturing remain the dominant factors shaping trader views on any near-term shift in control.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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