Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?
$1,502,420 Vol.
20 lug 2026
20 luglio
$304,255 Vol.
100%
22 luglio
$303,192 Vol.
92%
25 luglio
$207,424 Vol.
76%
31 luglio
$253,951 Vol.
64%
15 agosto
$84,975 Vol.
52%
31 agosto
$109,127 Vol.
45%
$1,502,420 Vol.
20 luglio
$304,255 Vol.
100%
22 luglio
$303,192 Vol.
92%
25 luglio
$207,424 Vol.
76%
31 luglio
$253,951 Vol.
64%
15 agosto
$84,975 Vol.
52%
31 agosto
$109,127 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jul 20 2026
Regional mediators present 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and US
July 20 jumps to 99%9%
On July 20, 2026, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day truce proposal aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal between Iran and the US, which also affected the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire would continue through near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators present Iran with 10-day truce proposal to revive interim ceasefire
July 20 rises to 96%3%
On July 20, 2026, regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day truce to revive US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 25 jumps to 84%14%
On July 20, 2026, mediators presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US and Iran exchange strikes; Israel and Iran maintain ceasefire
July 20 jumps to 99%11%
On July 19, 2026, the US launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct military actions qualifying as ceasefire violations occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through July 20 and beyond.
Jul 19 2026
US launches ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against US bases
July 20 jumps to 99%7%
On July 19, 2026, the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct qualifying military actions occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuation through July 20.
Jul 18 2026
Israel refrains from strikes on Iran amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
July 18 jumps to 100%7%
Despite ongoing US strikes on Iran and Iranian threats, Israel did not engage in military actions against Iran on July 18, 2026, reinforcing market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through this date.
Jul 18 2026
Israel abstains from strikes on Iran as ceasefire frays between US and Tehran
July 20 surges to 99%48%
Despite the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, Israel did not participate in recent strikes on Iran, and Iran refrained from attacking Israel. This absence of qualifying military actions between Israel and Iran supported the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire holding through July 20.
Jul 17 2026
US sends dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel amid rising tensions with Iran
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US deployed additional refueling aircraft to Israel, signaling preparedness for potential escalation but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred. This bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact as Israel refrained from strikes during this period.
Jul 17 2026
US deploys additional refueling aircraft to Israel amid regional tensions
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US sent dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel signaling preparedness for potential escalation, but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jul 20 2026
Regional mediators present 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and US
July 20 jumps to 99%9%
On July 20, 2026, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day truce proposal aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal between Iran and the US, which also affected the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire would continue through near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators present Iran with 10-day truce proposal to revive interim ceasefire
July 20 rises to 96%3%
On July 20, 2026, regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day truce to revive US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 25 jumps to 84%14%
On July 20, 2026, mediators presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US and Iran exchange strikes; Israel and Iran maintain ceasefire
July 20 jumps to 99%11%
On July 19, 2026, the US launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct military actions qualifying as ceasefire violations occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through July 20 and beyond.
Jul 19 2026
US launches ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against US bases
July 20 jumps to 99%7%
On July 19, 2026, the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct qualifying military actions occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuation through July 20.
Jul 18 2026
Israel refrains from strikes on Iran amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
July 18 jumps to 100%7%
Despite ongoing US strikes on Iran and Iranian threats, Israel did not engage in military actions against Iran on July 18, 2026, reinforcing market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through this date.
Jul 18 2026
Israel abstains from strikes on Iran as ceasefire frays between US and Tehran
July 20 surges to 99%48%
Despite the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, Israel did not participate in recent strikes on Iran, and Iran refrained from attacking Israel. This absence of qualifying military actions between Israel and Iran supported the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire holding through July 20.
Jul 17 2026
US sends dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel amid rising tensions with Iran
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US deployed additional refueling aircraft to Israel, signaling preparedness for potential escalation but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred. This bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact as Israel refrained from strikes during this period.
Jul 17 2026
US deploys additional refueling aircraft to Israel amid regional tensions
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US sent dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel signaling preparedness for potential escalation, but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuation.
"Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "20 luglio" a 100%, seguito da "18 luglio" a 100%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" ha generato $1.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jul 16, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" è "20 luglio" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "18 luglio" a 100%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $1.5 million scambiati su "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 100¢ per "20 luglio" nel mercato "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 100% che "20 luglio" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 100¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 0¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Aug 31, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?" ha una discussione in crescita di 9 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Il cessate il fuoco Israele x Iran continua fino a...?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
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