**US retail gasoline prices currently average around $4.10 per gallon nationally as of July 31, 2026, reflecting recent weekly gains amid elevated summer demand.** However, multiple supply-side developments are exerting downward pressure on crude oil benchmarks and refining margins, which directly feed into pump prices. Global inventories are shifting from draws to builds as Persian Gulf production recovers from earlier disruptions, with EIA projecting Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in Q3 2026 versus much higher levels earlier in the year. This easing supply, combined with moderating inventory draws and the wind-down of peak driving season, underpins the EIA’s forecast for average retail gasoline of $3.80 per gallon across Q3—down from over $4.20 in Q2—before further declines toward $3.40 in Q4. Key market dynamics include narrowing crack spreads as gasoline inventories rebuild and OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply responses stabilize flows. Trader sentiment in related prediction markets likely prices in these fundamentals, with limited scope for sharp upside absent renewed geopolitical shocks or unexpected demand spikes. Near-term catalysts center on weekly EIA inventory reports, any final summer demand data, and broader crude price movements, which could determine whether prices sustain near current levels or accelerate lower by month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
31 ago 2026
↑ $5,00
6%
↑ $4,75
15%
↑ $4,50
33%
↑ 4,25 $
62%
↓ $3,90
48%
↓ $3,70
28%
↓ $3,50
13%
↓ $3,25
26%
↓ $3,00
26%
↓ $2,50
5%
$4,701 Vol.
↑ $5,00
$1,466 Vol.
6%
↑ $4,75
$60 Vol.
15%
↑ $4,50
$564 Vol.
33%
↑ 4,25 $
$863 Vol.
62%
↓ $3,90
$181 Vol.
48%
↓ $3,70
$1,327 Vol.
28%
↓ $3,50
$22 Vol.
13%
↓ $3,25
$0 Vol.
26%
↓ $3,00
$0 Vol.
26%
↓ $2,50
$218 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".**US retail gasoline prices currently average around $4.10 per gallon nationally as of July 31, 2026, reflecting recent weekly gains amid elevated summer demand.** However, multiple supply-side developments are exerting downward pressure on crude oil benchmarks and refining margins, which directly feed into pump prices. Global inventories are shifting from draws to builds as Persian Gulf production recovers from earlier disruptions, with EIA projecting Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in Q3 2026 versus much higher levels earlier in the year. This easing supply, combined with moderating inventory draws and the wind-down of peak driving season, underpins the EIA’s forecast for average retail gasoline of $3.80 per gallon across Q3—down from over $4.20 in Q2—before further declines toward $3.40 in Q4.
Key market dynamics include narrowing crack spreads as gasoline inventories rebuild and OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply responses stabilize flows. Trader sentiment in related prediction markets likely prices in these fundamentals, with limited scope for sharp upside absent renewed geopolitical shocks or unexpected demand spikes. Near-term catalysts center on weekly EIA inventory reports, any final summer demand data, and broader crude price movements, which could determine whether prices sustain near current levels or accelerate lower by month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET
Volume
$4,701Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".**US retail gasoline prices currently average around $4.10 per gallon nationally as of July 31, 2026, reflecting recent weekly gains amid elevated summer demand.** However, multiple supply-side developments are exerting downward pressure on crude oil benchmarks and refining margins, which directly feed into pump prices. Global inventories are shifting from draws to builds as Persian Gulf production recovers from earlier disruptions, with EIA projecting Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in Q3 2026 versus much higher levels earlier in the year. This easing supply, combined with moderating inventory draws and the wind-down of peak driving season, underpins the EIA’s forecast for average retail gasoline of $3.80 per gallon across Q3—down from over $4.20 in Q2—before further declines toward $3.40 in Q4.
Key market dynamics include narrowing crack spreads as gasoline inventories rebuild and OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply responses stabilize flows. Trader sentiment in related prediction markets likely prices in these fundamentals, with limited scope for sharp upside absent renewed geopolitical shocks or unexpected demand spikes. Near-term catalysts center on weekly EIA inventory reports, any final summer demand data, and broader crude price movements, which could determine whether prices sustain near current levels or accelerate lower by month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$4,701Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...**US retail gasoline prices currently average around $4.10 per gallon nationally as of July 31, 2026, reflecting recent weekly gains amid elevated summer demand.** However, multiple supply-side developments are exerting downward pressure on crude oil benchmarks and refining margins, which directly feed into pump prices. Global inventories are shifting from draws to builds as Persian Gulf production recovers from earlier disruptions, with EIA projecting Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in Q3 2026 versus much higher levels earlier in the year. This easing supply, combined with moderating inventory draws and the wind-down of peak driving season, underpins the EIA’s forecast for average retail gasoline of $3.80 per gallon across Q3—down from over $4.20 in Q2—before further declines toward $3.40 in Q4. Key market dynamics include narrowing crack spreads as gasoline inventories rebuild and OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply responses stabilize flows. Trader sentiment in related prediction markets likely prices in these fundamentals, with limited scope for sharp upside absent renewed geopolitical shocks or unexpected demand spikes. Near-term catalysts center on weekly EIA inventory reports, any final summer demand data, and broader crude price movements, which could determine whether prices sustain near current levels or accelerate lower by month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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