Recent revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has removed the 60-day window for Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales that OFAC authorized in late June under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That license briefly permitted dollar-denominated transactions, insurance, shipping, and limited U.S. imports through August 21, unlocking an estimated 67 million barrels and $8-9 billion in potential revenue while easing near-term global supply pressure on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether Treasury will issue a fresh waiver or equivalent relief by late August or September amid stalled final-deal talks, IAEA inspection commitments, and Hormuz transit risks. Any reissuance would likely hinge on verifiable Iranian steps toward de-escalation and nuclear compliance, with oil market participants watching OFAC announcements, Treasury statements, and regional security developments for signals on export volumes and pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$342,444 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
7%
$342,444 Vol.
30 settembre
$12,173 Vol.
7%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has removed the 60-day window for Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales that OFAC authorized in late June under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That license briefly permitted dollar-denominated transactions, insurance, shipping, and limited U.S. imports through August 21, unlocking an estimated 67 million barrels and $8-9 billion in potential revenue while easing near-term global supply pressure on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether Treasury will issue a fresh waiver or equivalent relief by late August or September amid stalled final-deal talks, IAEA inspection commitments, and Hormuz transit risks. Any reissuance would likely hinge on verifiable Iranian steps toward de-escalation and nuclear compliance, with oil market participants watching OFAC announcements, Treasury statements, and regional security developments for signals on export volumes and pricing.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$342,444Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has removed the 60-day window for Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales that OFAC authorized in late June under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That license briefly permitted dollar-denominated transactions, insurance, shipping, and limited U.S. imports through August 21, unlocking an estimated 67 million barrels and $8-9 billion in potential revenue while easing near-term global supply pressure on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether Treasury will issue a fresh waiver or equivalent relief by late August or September amid stalled final-deal talks, IAEA inspection commitments, and Hormuz transit risks. Any reissuance would likely hinge on verifiable Iranian steps toward de-escalation and nuclear compliance, with oil market participants watching OFAC announcements, Treasury statements, and regional security developments for signals on export volumes and pricing.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$342,444Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has removed the 60-day window for Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales that OFAC authorized in late June under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That license briefly permitted dollar-denominated transactions, insurance, shipping, and limited U.S. imports through August 21, unlocking an estimated 67 million barrels and $8-9 billion in potential revenue while easing near-term global supply pressure on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader focus now centers on whether Treasury will issue a fresh waiver or equivalent relief by late August or September amid stalled final-deal talks, IAEA inspection commitments, and Hormuz transit risks. Any reissuance would likely hinge on verifiable Iranian steps toward de-escalation and nuclear compliance, with oil market participants watching OFAC announcements, Treasury statements, and regional security developments for signals on export volumes and pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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