Recent US-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, produced commitments for Iran to avoid new nuclear weapons, refrain from further uranium enrichment or facility expansion in the near term, and downblend existing highly enriched stockpiles under IAEA supervision. However, the accord explicitly defers core disputes over long-term enrichment limits and verification to additional 60-day negotiations, leaving Iran's longstanding position on domestic enrichment rights unresolved. Ongoing talks and prior patterns of incremental or reversible steps, rather than outright termination, have reinforced trader consensus that a binding agreement to end enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
11% probabilità
$1,632,416 Vol.
$1,632,416 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
11% probabilità
$1,632,416 Vol.
$1,632,416 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, produced commitments for Iran to avoid new nuclear weapons, refrain from further uranium enrichment or facility expansion in the near term, and downblend existing highly enriched stockpiles under IAEA supervision. However, the accord explicitly defers core disputes over long-term enrichment limits and verification to additional 60-day negotiations, leaving Iran's longstanding position on domestic enrichment rights unresolved. Ongoing talks and prior patterns of incremental or reversible steps, rather than outright termination, have reinforced trader consensus that a binding agreement to end enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,632,416Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, produced commitments for Iran to avoid new nuclear weapons, refrain from further uranium enrichment or facility expansion in the near term, and downblend existing highly enriched stockpiles under IAEA supervision. However, the accord explicitly defers core disputes over long-term enrichment limits and verification to additional 60-day negotiations, leaving Iran's longstanding position on domestic enrichment rights unresolved. Ongoing talks and prior patterns of incremental or reversible steps, rather than outright termination, have reinforced trader consensus that a binding agreement to end enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,632,416Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, produced commitments for Iran to avoid new nuclear weapons, refrain from further uranium enrichment or facility expansion in the near term, and downblend existing highly enriched stockpiles under IAEA supervision. However, the accord explicitly defers core disputes over long-term enrichment limits and verification to additional 60-day negotiations, leaving Iran's longstanding position on domestic enrichment rights unresolved. Ongoing talks and prior patterns of incremental or reversible steps, rather than outright termination, have reinforced trader consensus that a binding agreement to end enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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