Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy has produced only an interim framework focused on down-blending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision and restoring limited inspections, while deferring decisions on future enrichment capacity to unresolved final negotiations. The June 2026 memorandum left enrichment limits as a core dispute, with Iran emphasizing its nuclear energy needs and resisting permanent cessation amid ongoing sanctions relief talks. No verifiable breakthroughs have emerged since the 60-day negotiation window closed, leaving enrichment facilities and programs intact. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure before the deadline remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre?
L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre?
Sì
2% probabilità
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy has produced only an interim framework focused on down-blending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision and restoring limited inspections, while deferring decisions on future enrichment capacity to unresolved final negotiations. The June 2026 memorandum left enrichment limits as a core dispute, with Iran emphasizing its nuclear energy needs and resisting permanent cessation amid ongoing sanctions relief talks. No verifiable breakthroughs have emerged since the 60-day negotiation window closed, leaving enrichment facilities and programs intact. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure before the deadline remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$64,609Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy has produced only an interim framework focused on down-blending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision and restoring limited inspections, while deferring decisions on future enrichment capacity to unresolved final negotiations. The June 2026 memorandum left enrichment limits as a core dispute, with Iran emphasizing its nuclear energy needs and resisting permanent cessation amid ongoing sanctions relief talks. No verifiable breakthroughs have emerged since the 60-day negotiation window closed, leaving enrichment facilities and programs intact. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure before the deadline remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,609Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy has produced only an interim framework focused on down-blending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision and restoring limited inspections, while deferring decisions on future enrichment capacity to unresolved final negotiations. The June 2026 memorandum left enrichment limits as a core dispute, with Iran emphasizing its nuclear energy needs and resisting permanent cessation amid ongoing sanctions relief talks. No verifiable breakthroughs have emerged since the 60-day negotiation window closed, leaving enrichment facilities and programs intact. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure before the deadline remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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