Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$203,461 Vol.
$203,461 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$203,461 Vol.
$203,461 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$203,461Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$203,461Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted and damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization facilities, substantially degrading its nuclear infrastructure and halting enrichment activities according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through early June 2026 show little subsequent change, with inspectors facing restricted access since the initial strikes and no indications of a structured nuclear weapons program or preparations for testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks and sanctions pressure further constrain rapid reconstitution, supporting trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a nuclear test before 2027 despite its retained stockpile of enriched uranium.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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