Traders assign a 96.2 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises tested reservist call-ups, arms relocation, and communications resilience, while China conducted blockade-style drills earlier in the year and maintained gray-zone coast guard patrols and maritime jurisdiction assertions around the strait. U.S. intelligence assessments highlight ongoing People’s Liberation Army readiness gaps and the high expected costs of U.S. and allied intervention. Beijing continues diplomatic and coercive pressure short of war. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises or unforeseen leadership decisions, though structural and timing constraints make these highly improbable before year-end.