Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb substantial resources, with forces recording only incremental territorial gains amid elevated casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure through mid-August 2026. No official Russian statements, verified troop concentrations, or intelligence assessments point to preparations for a new conventional invasion of another state before year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% in line with assessments that Moscow's stretched conventional capabilities, sanctions pressure, and focus on sustaining the existing front make a second theater unlikely. Border tensions with Georgia and hybrid activities elsewhere persist without crossing into large-scale offensive operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Russia invaderà un altro paese nel 2026?
La Russia invaderà un altro paese nel 2026?
Sì
6% probabilità
$401,857 Vol.
$401,857 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$401,857 Vol.
$401,857 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb substantial resources, with forces recording only incremental territorial gains amid elevated casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure through mid-August 2026. No official Russian statements, verified troop concentrations, or intelligence assessments point to preparations for a new conventional invasion of another state before year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% in line with assessments that Moscow's stretched conventional capabilities, sanctions pressure, and focus on sustaining the existing front make a second theater unlikely. Border tensions with Georgia and hybrid activities elsewhere persist without crossing into large-scale offensive operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volume
$401,857Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb substantial resources, with forces recording only incremental territorial gains amid elevated casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure through mid-August 2026. No official Russian statements, verified troop concentrations, or intelligence assessments point to preparations for a new conventional invasion of another state before year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% in line with assessments that Moscow's stretched conventional capabilities, sanctions pressure, and focus on sustaining the existing front make a second theater unlikely. Border tensions with Georgia and hybrid activities elsewhere persist without crossing into large-scale offensive operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$401,857Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb substantial resources, with forces recording only incremental territorial gains amid elevated casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure through mid-August 2026. No official Russian statements, verified troop concentrations, or intelligence assessments point to preparations for a new conventional invasion of another state before year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% in line with assessments that Moscow's stretched conventional capabilities, sanctions pressure, and focus on sustaining the existing front make a second theater unlikely. Border tensions with Georgia and hybrid activities elsewhere persist without crossing into large-scale offensive operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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