President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$795,287 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre 2026
1%
31 dicembre 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30 settembre 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31 dicembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,287Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,287Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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