President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the dominant driver of market sentiment. The United States has observed a unilateral moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with technical readiness for underground tests estimated at 24-36 months. No full-yield test has occurred, and experts note that subcritical experiments or delivery-system trials may differ from explosive detonations. Congressional oversight of stockpile stewardship funding and potential policy clarification continue to shape outcomes, while arms-control concerns and responses from Moscow and Beijing could influence any timeline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$668,722 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
1%
30 settembre 2026
5%
31 dicembre 2026
10%
$668,722 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$40,880 Vol.
1%
30 settembre 2026
$7,044 Vol.
5%
31 dicembre 2026
$10,584 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the dominant driver of market sentiment. The United States has observed a unilateral moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with technical readiness for underground tests estimated at 24-36 months. No full-yield test has occurred, and experts note that subcritical experiments or delivery-system trials may differ from explosive detonations. Congressional oversight of stockpile stewardship funding and potential policy clarification continue to shape outcomes, while arms-control concerns and responses from Moscow and Beijing could influence any timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$668,722Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the dominant driver of market sentiment. The United States has observed a unilateral moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with technical readiness for underground tests estimated at 24-36 months. No full-yield test has occurred, and experts note that subcritical experiments or delivery-system trials may differ from explosive detonations. Congressional oversight of stockpile stewardship funding and potential policy clarification continue to shape outcomes, while arms-control concerns and responses from Moscow and Beijing could influence any timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$668,722Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the dominant driver of market sentiment. The United States has observed a unilateral moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with technical readiness for underground tests estimated at 24-36 months. No full-yield test has occurred, and experts note that subcritical experiments or delivery-system trials may differ from explosive detonations. Congressional oversight of stockpile stewardship funding and potential policy clarification continue to shape outcomes, while arms-control concerns and responses from Moscow and Beijing could influence any timeline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti