Strong non-proliferation commitments under the NPT, combined with US extended deterrence through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to deter allies from pursuing independent nuclear programs. Recent debates in South Korea, Japan, and parts of Europe about hedging options have intensified following the February 2026 expiration of New START, yet no ally has launched verifiable weapons development, enrichment, or acquisition efforts. Technical barriers remain high, as any covert program would require years to reach operational capability and would face immediate detection and sanctions. Trader consensus at 94% for no acquisition before 2027 aligns with the absence of concrete policy shifts or scheduled milestones capable of accelerating proliferation in the short term.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato6% probabilità
$209,398 Vol.
$209,398 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6% probabilità
$209,398 Vol.
$209,398 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Strong non-proliferation commitments under the NPT, combined with US extended deterrence through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to deter allies from pursuing independent nuclear programs. Recent debates in South Korea, Japan, and parts of Europe about hedging options have intensified following the February 2026 expiration of New START, yet no ally has launched verifiable weapons development, enrichment, or acquisition efforts. Technical barriers remain high, as any covert program would require years to reach operational capability and would face immediate detection and sanctions. Trader consensus at 94% for no acquisition before 2027 aligns with the absence of concrete policy shifts or scheduled milestones capable of accelerating proliferation in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$209,398Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Strong non-proliferation commitments under the NPT, combined with US extended deterrence through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to deter allies from pursuing independent nuclear programs. Recent debates in South Korea, Japan, and parts of Europe about hedging options have intensified following the February 2026 expiration of New START, yet no ally has launched verifiable weapons development, enrichment, or acquisition efforts. Technical barriers remain high, as any covert program would require years to reach operational capability and would face immediate detection and sanctions. Trader consensus at 94% for no acquisition before 2027 aligns with the absence of concrete policy shifts or scheduled milestones capable of accelerating proliferation in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$209,398Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong non-proliferation commitments under the NPT, combined with US extended deterrence through NATO nuclear sharing and bilateral security guarantees, continue to deter allies from pursuing independent nuclear programs. Recent debates in South Korea, Japan, and parts of Europe about hedging options have intensified following the February 2026 expiration of New START, yet no ally has launched verifiable weapons development, enrichment, or acquisition efforts. Technical barriers remain high, as any covert program would require years to reach operational capability and would face immediate detection and sanctions. Trader consensus at 94% for no acquisition before 2027 aligns with the absence of concrete policy shifts or scheduled milestones capable of accelerating proliferation in the short term.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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