US allies such as Japan and South Korea have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to non-nuclear status and reliance on US extended deterrence, including through recent trilateral statements and bilateral assurances. No ally has launched or accelerated a weapons program capable of yielding a deployable nuclear device before the end of 2026, and NPT obligations plus technical and diplomatic barriers make breakout timelines far longer. NATO nuclear-sharing discussions and Franco-British coordination involve existing arsenals rather than new proliferation, while a July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement faces years of infrastructure and verification hurdles before any weapons path could materialize. Traders price the near-term absence of such developments at 94 percent for “No.”
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato6% probabilità
$209,366 Vol.
$209,366 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6% probabilità
$209,366 Vol.
$209,366 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies such as Japan and South Korea have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to non-nuclear status and reliance on US extended deterrence, including through recent trilateral statements and bilateral assurances. No ally has launched or accelerated a weapons program capable of yielding a deployable nuclear device before the end of 2026, and NPT obligations plus technical and diplomatic barriers make breakout timelines far longer. NATO nuclear-sharing discussions and Franco-British coordination involve existing arsenals rather than new proliferation, while a July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement faces years of infrastructure and verification hurdles before any weapons path could materialize. Traders price the near-term absence of such developments at 94 percent for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$209,366Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies such as Japan and South Korea have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to non-nuclear status and reliance on US extended deterrence, including through recent trilateral statements and bilateral assurances. No ally has launched or accelerated a weapons program capable of yielding a deployable nuclear device before the end of 2026, and NPT obligations plus technical and diplomatic barriers make breakout timelines far longer. NATO nuclear-sharing discussions and Franco-British coordination involve existing arsenals rather than new proliferation, while a July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement faces years of infrastructure and verification hurdles before any weapons path could materialize. Traders price the near-term absence of such developments at 94 percent for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$209,366Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US allies such as Japan and South Korea have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to non-nuclear status and reliance on US extended deterrence, including through recent trilateral statements and bilateral assurances. No ally has launched or accelerated a weapons program capable of yielding a deployable nuclear device before the end of 2026, and NPT obligations plus technical and diplomatic barriers make breakout timelines far longer. NATO nuclear-sharing discussions and Franco-British coordination involve existing arsenals rather than new proliferation, while a July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement faces years of infrastructure and verification hurdles before any weapons path could materialize. Traders price the near-term absence of such developments at 94 percent for “No.”
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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