Ukraine’s constitutional commitment since 2019 to pursue full NATO membership as a core foreign policy objective remains the primary barrier to any near-term agreement on neutrality. NATO allies reaffirmed this irreversible path at the July 2026 Ankara summit while continuing military support, with no verified public statements or diplomatic moves from Kyiv indicating willingness to forgo accession by the August 31 deadline. Ongoing conflict dynamics and Russia’s longstanding demands for neutrality have produced no breakthrough talks capable of overriding these structural positions within the remaining days. Trader consensus at 99% reflects the absence of credible catalysts for reversal, though an unexpected negotiated settlement or constitutional amendment process could theoretically shift the outcome before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
1% probabilità
$25,410 Vol.
$25,410 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$25,410 Vol.
$25,410 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment since 2019 to pursue full NATO membership as a core foreign policy objective remains the primary barrier to any near-term agreement on neutrality. NATO allies reaffirmed this irreversible path at the July 2026 Ankara summit while continuing military support, with no verified public statements or diplomatic moves from Kyiv indicating willingness to forgo accession by the August 31 deadline. Ongoing conflict dynamics and Russia’s longstanding demands for neutrality have produced no breakthrough talks capable of overriding these structural positions within the remaining days. Trader consensus at 99% reflects the absence of credible catalysts for reversal, though an unexpected negotiated settlement or constitutional amendment process could theoretically shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercato aperto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volume
$25,410Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment since 2019 to pursue full NATO membership as a core foreign policy objective remains the primary barrier to any near-term agreement on neutrality. NATO allies reaffirmed this irreversible path at the July 2026 Ankara summit while continuing military support, with no verified public statements or diplomatic moves from Kyiv indicating willingness to forgo accession by the August 31 deadline. Ongoing conflict dynamics and Russia’s longstanding demands for neutrality have produced no breakthrough talks capable of overriding these structural positions within the remaining days. Trader consensus at 99% reflects the absence of credible catalysts for reversal, though an unexpected negotiated settlement or constitutional amendment process could theoretically shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$25,410Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s constitutional commitment since 2019 to pursue full NATO membership as a core foreign policy objective remains the primary barrier to any near-term agreement on neutrality. NATO allies reaffirmed this irreversible path at the July 2026 Ankara summit while continuing military support, with no verified public statements or diplomatic moves from Kyiv indicating willingness to forgo accession by the August 31 deadline. Ongoing conflict dynamics and Russia’s longstanding demands for neutrality have produced no breakthrough talks capable of overriding these structural positions within the remaining days. Trader consensus at 99% reflects the absence of credible catalysts for reversal, though an unexpected negotiated settlement or constitutional amendment process could theoretically shift the outcome before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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