Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMeituan 26%
Nvidia 26%
Alibaba 26%
DeepSeek 26%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
Meituan
26%
Nvidia
26%
Alibaba
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Xiaomi
25%
Anthropic
24%
14%
Thinky
14%
Tencent
14%
Meta
14%
Moonshot
14%
OpenAI
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
Z.ai
14%
Baidu
14%
Mistral
14%
Microsoft
14%
StepFun
14%
ByteDance
13%
MiniMax
13%
Amazon
13%
Meituan 26%
Nvidia 26%
Alibaba 26%
DeepSeek 26%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
Meituan
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
24%
$0 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
13%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
13%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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