MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiStepFun 50%
Moonshot 28%
Alibaba 27%
Z.ai 27%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
StepFun
50%
Moonshot
28%
Alibaba
27%
Z.ai
27%
Baidu
27%
Microsoft
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Meituan
26%
15%
OpenAI
14%
MiniMax
14%
Thinky
14%
Mistral
14%
Meta
14%
Anthropic
10%
ByteDance
10%
Xiaomi
9%
Nvidia
9%
SpaceXAI
8%
Amazon
8%
Tencent
8%
StepFun 50%
Moonshot 28%
Alibaba 27%
Z.ai 27%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
StepFun
$0 Vol.
50%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
28%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
27%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
27%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
27%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
26%
$0 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
10%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
10%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
9%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
9%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
8%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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