The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOpenAI 37%
Anthropic 26%
Google 14%
Meta 14%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
37%
Anthropic
32%
14%
Meta
14%
Tencent
14%
SpaceXAI
13%
DeepSeek
13%
Xiaomi
13%
Mistral
13%
Alibaba
13%
Z.ai
12%
MiniMax
12%
Microsoft
12%
Nvidia
11%
ByteDance
9%
Moonshot
9%
Meituan
8%
Baidu
7%
Amazon
7%
OpenAI 37%
Anthropic 26%
Google 14%
Meta 14%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$42 Vol.
37%
Anthropic
$20 Vol.
32%
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
13%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
13%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
12%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
12%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
11%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
9%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
7%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$62Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$62Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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